Blog Post #5: Polling

Polling

What The Poll's Got Right:

Pollsters did not get much right about the 2016 election. The polls did indicate the states that Trump was favored to win, however in these states he outperformed what they were expecting. In these areas, there were higher rates of less educated white voters.

Interactive map to show how the campaign would have changed based on specific states

What The Poll's Got Wrong:

The polls did not consider:

• His appeal to undecided or independent voters, as well as voters who did not feel comfortable to admit who they were voting for due to judgment and name calling
• His strong approval rating of the working class especially in swing states
• People showing up to vote that normally wouldn't
• What issues people were most concerned with in this election
• The amount of support in the states he would win
• His support from minorities 

How Could Polling Be Better:

       
• When polling, use different tools for different demographics. Online and phone calls are two different ways to poll that attract different types of people from different areas. 

• Understand the major issues people are concerned with.

• Having non-bias polling systems, so phone workers asking specific questions, emails being sent to a certain person or online polls specific to a party.

• Understand the people more and ask questions about what they see around them and how they are similar and different from their peers.

Questions I would Ask:

       

• Which party are you compared to your family, friends or peers?

• What issues are you mainly concerned with?

• What is your demographic compared to others around you?

• If independent or undecided, who's views and issues do you fall more in line with or are concerned with the most?

• How much impact does a candidate's remarks, scandals or image effect the way you vote?

• Why would you vote for a specific candidate? Because you like them, you like the party they represent or are you more concerned with the supreme court?

Whats Good About Polling:

Polls are fast and cheap and can get relative information. They show the candidate that is in the lead and how issues can impact their ratings. They also allow the candidate to see where they should push more effort and campaign in. Polling can influence voter support and turn out as well. I do not believe polling matters for the people as much as it does for the candidates and their teams because a person should not let others opinions influence their own.

Limitations:

Limitations include who is being interviewed - what party they represent, what their demographics are, how honest they are being, how obligated they feel to share their information, or how much they care. Limitations can also come from how random the polling is or if it bias like the image on the right that asks questions that her heavily slanted in one direction. This can depend on the source of gathering information whether it be from a real person, a robo caller, email sent directly to a specific person or an online poll all,  can be persuasive in the way the questions are asked. Other problems from polling can be overestimating  and underestimating, percentage of error, undecided voters, not accounting for the people who usually don’t vote and support from less likely groups.

References:

http://www.270towin.com/maps/clinton-trump-electoral-map
https://www.google.com/search?q=trump+minority+supporters&espv=2&biw=1216&bih=792&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjtpcr2rrjSAhVM9WMKHensCIsQ_AUICCgD#imgrc=43U7-h9qiZBPdM:
https://www.google.com/search?q=polling&espv=2&biw=1216&bih=792&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwix0vLdr7jSAhVC7WMKHW6YAbcQ_AUIBygC#imgdii=h-iw4tQWNrLUrM:&imgrc=bJxvrDzryYP3WM:
https://www.google.com/search?q=polling&espv=2&biw=1216&bih=792&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwix0vLdr7jSAhVC7WMKHW6YAbcQ_AUIBygC#tbm=isch&q=bad+polling+questions&*&imgrc=rEOBZ0tTn174KM:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-missed-trump-we-asked-pollsters-why/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-missed-trump-we-asked-pollsters-why/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html
http://www.270towin.com/maps/clinton-trump-electoral-map
http://www.270towin.com/2016-polls-clinton-trump/
http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2016/11/economist-explains-3
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/09/fox-news-general-election-exit-poll-summary.html
http://www.crf-usa.org/election-central/public-opinion-polls.html
http://www.redstate.com/moe_lane/2015/09/24/bloomberg-bad-polling/